Demographic Collapse Mandates a Transition to Monarchy

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In this episode, our host discusses his changed perspective on the future of global governance, arguing that demographic collapse will inevitably lead to a shift toward monarchic and authoritarian regimes. He highlights the unsustainability of current democratic systems in the face of demographic crises and economic collapse. The episode explores various countries' timelines for potential social service collapse, the roles of AI and tech elites, and the possible political transitions and societal impacts. The conversation also touches upon the influence of social media and the looming possibility of walled garden city-states emerging as havens for the wealthy.

[00:00:00] Hello Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today my mind has dramatically changed on a topic that I used to have a pretty firm stance on, okay. Which is I did not believe that it was good for the world to head in the direction of Monarch or authoritarianism.

And I did not think that that was the direction the world was going to head. Now I am. Reassessing my beliefs around this in the face of the economic reality that demographic collapse will integrate. Mm. And I will be arguing in this episode that. Demographic collapse will both create authoritarian and, and monarchic systems, while at the same time making those systems governments with less overall suffering than the systems that insist on staying democracies.

And the this change, when I say insist on staying democracies. A lot of these places won't have a choice, so let's [00:01:00] sort of talk about how this happens. Okay. Before we go into the details. Yeah. And this episode will also serve if you wanna introduce people to the prenatal list movement. I'm gonna introduce a lot of the, the basic facts, again, with their more modern updates.

Okay. To help you understand just how unsustainable and how quickly the existing system is going to start collapsing. But the gist being is that within our lifetimes in many places around the world, we will be hitting scenarios. So by like 2060,

in South Korea, we will have a country where there are two elderly people for every worker. And we will start seeing situations like this more and more around the world as demographic collapse continues. And we're gonna, going over when various countries hit this. Did you, did you see the, the graph on x that REU shared, generated by chat, GPT, by the way, they can just generate beautiful graphs for you.

That demonstrated how, how many people were paying for how many retirees over time. Oh, no. And chose it. Now, as of. Maybe today, but maybe even [00:02:00] 2023. It's 2.4 workers are paying for each retiree. And that's America In the United States or in Korea? In America, yeah. So like that's, we're already in a really dangerous place.

Like, I don't like this because also keep in mind, social security isn't just for people who are retired, who've painted into the system all their lives. It also plays a role in supporting people who are on disability, people who are severely disabled. Like this is, it's just not, ah, well I don't think You mean social security specifically here.

You're talking about the various social safety nets. Like Medicare. Medicare, yeah. Yeah. But still like that's all. And, and, and so what ends up happening is as more and more people are reliant on the state and on systems like social security, this for our non-American listeners, about 50% of our listeners are non-American.

This in America is a system that pays for old people to survive. If they don't have savings, and even if they do have savings, like it's a set. Mm-hmm. You get in the United States, and a lot of countries have this after a certain age as that demographic becomes the majority of the voting base, they will [00:03:00] not make cuts to the systems that are paying out to them.

Hmm. Because they will have the voting power. Mm-hmm. And eventually that leads to economic collapse. Mm-hmm. That leads to a complete system collapse because you cannot pay for two elderly people on every one young person's salary. What happens if you try to do that? Because some countries will be trying to do this before other countries is young people will just leave your country.

And then what you do, well then you start putting in travel restrictions and become authoritarian like anyways. Right. But then you have the, the, secondary problem here which is you're like, okay, well then maybe they can try to get their fertility rate up. Maybe they'll wake up when this starts to happen, but it's already too late then because they'll already have, like, even if they start getting their fertility rate above replacement, then they'll already have like 20 years of, of having every person in the economy support two or three elderly people in the economy.

Which is just completely un economically viable. And so these countries will become [00:04:00] incredibly weak. They also won't be able to field militaries because they don't have a lot of young people. Whereas the countries that become monarchies or authoritarian or fascist in other ways, I. They will have a single strong man making decisions on behalf of the good of the country and the nation.

So they will be able to cut these systems. And maybe even in, in some cases, and I'm not promoting this, I'm just saying this is what some of them might do is create let's say Logan's run type things for unproductive citizens.

Runner terminated, 0.31. Ready for cleanup? Sure. He had some life in him in the end. Wow. Hey, that was a great shot you made. Well, you kept missing him. I had to do something.

It's crazy. He could have renewed on carousel. Now he's finished forever. Why did they run?

Speaker: On productive folks, your time has passed. We'll turn you into fuel of fire. Just [00:05:00] get in line to become biodiesel. Oh, stop crying, you annoying weasel. As laid out by Curtis Yarvin. Handle the old or we'll all be stuck.

And this gets really scary because these countries will be significantly more economically healthy than their neighbors, and they will.

As such, not just be economically more healthy, but also militarily more healthy, be able to exercise their will on their neighbors. So if one of their neighbors tries to stay a democracy, with the nature of the democracy being that the majority population gets to do what they want, right? Like gets to steer the direction and the majority will be elderly.

They won't be able to resist the wills of the neighbors that have undergone the fascist conversion. So let's talk about how this conversion happens, because you might be like, well, why, why would this conversion happen? [00:06:00] Well, you have a few things here. First is and we a bit later will be going over using how the Weimar Republic transitioned into the Nazi state. As an example of how a country in deep economic shambles can have a youth-led movement, transition it to a fascist state which is typically when this happens. So as the economy begins to break down there will likely be rebellion.

I mean, how many old people are you willing to support? And then you've got the problem, which is the young people who would have an interest in participating in this rebellion are going to be the majority of the military, first of all. Hmm. But they're also going to be the population that would actually engage in rebellion.

Old people actually do not engage in rebellions or civil wars at a very high rate. And so it's basically in the bag. That the transition would go to the strong man. There are a few paths around this. Maybe AI could be a path around this. If AI somehow like. Creates endless prosperity [00:07:00] in a, a genuinely post scarcity society.

Then, then we avoid this. It's a possibility. But it's a, it's a very scary possibilit