Fertility Rates and Homicide: Why Are They So Strongly Correlated?

In this episode, we explore the fascinating and dramatic decline in fertility rates across the United States and compare it with homicide rates to uncover an unusual correlation. We examine how fertility rates have decreased from 2005 to 2022 and notice remarkable overlaps with homicide rates. Globally, we discuss patterns in various regions, particularly focusing on the anomaly of Russia and Greenland. We dive deep into cultural histories, especially the Greater Appalachian region, examining their violent traditions and high fertility rates. We conclude by scrutinizing three core identity types - individualist, communalist, and clan-based - and how they impact fertility rates, with an anticipation of future episodes on related topics.

[00:00:00]

Malcolm Collins: You can open your WhatsApp now because I told her I want to surprise her. Okay. You can look at the first three maps that I show you, which I think it gives people an idea just how quickly and dramatically fertility rates are declining In the United States, most of the United States in 2005 had the fertility rate that today only our highest fertility states have.

And so here I'm showing a a a 2022. He chart of fertility rates in the United States, then we're going back 10 years and you're saying okay Fertility rates are declining and now we're gonna go back to 2005 and you see basically the entire United States max out the fertility rate

Simone Collins: If you go in chronological order, it looks Like a pond going dry as though the United States was full of water and then there's only a little bit of water at the bottom of a mostly dried up pond at this point.

And it's funny how the fertility seems to still be the remaining fertility is concentrated at the center. Well,

Malcolm Collins: so, well, not [00:01:00] exactly in the center. So I want you to contrast 2 maps here. Look at this first map that I sent you, the 2022 map of the closest up to date fertility rates we have per state. And then look at this red map underneath it.

Do you

notice that they have a remarkable overlap?

Okay, so this red map Yeah. This is a map of homicide rates.

Simone Collins: Oh, damn. Um, Okay. So, wow. Just I guess we have a high churn rate. You know, birth to death.

Malcolm Collins: So if you take out the states that you know are disproportionately high just due to major cities, i.

e. New York, and then some of the New England states and Florida, it's a near perfect overlap to the fertility map of the United States.

Would you like to know more?

Malcolm Collins: When you correct for cities, it's a perfect overlap homicides match fertility rates.

And then I wanted to say, like, is this a us thing or is this an, a global thing, right? . . So if you look at the first global map, in fact, [00:02:00] can you even tell which of these two maps is the fertility map and which is the global homicide map?

Simone Collins: If, if I hadn't, if I wasn't looking at the labeling. No, I definitely would've thought that this was not fertility, because why would California be so high?

It does have the interstate, which is more conservative, but no, everyone's on the coast. It would not make sense. So

Malcolm Collins: I'm not talking about the us I'm talking about the two global maps, I think. Oh, the

Simone Collins: global maps. Okay. Hold on. I haven't looked at the global maps yet. Okay. So, okay. I'm looking at the first global map.

Whoa. Okay. I would not be able to tell the difference. We're not for Russia.

Malcolm Collins: Russia is the big outlier. So here we're gonna look at Europe because we're actually gonna talk about why Russia's the big outlier here. 'cause I think it's really interesting that this is the case.

Simone Collins: Well what about Iceland too?

It is a little sus what's going on there?

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. What's with these

Simone Collins: terminal Northern nations? Wait, why does

Malcolm Collins: Greenland have such a high [00:03:00] fertility? Oh,

Simone Collins: that wait. Green. Oh.

Malcolm Collins: Oh no. That's a murder rate. Why does green rate that's a murder rate? That's what I was saying

Microphone (Wireless Microphone Rx): The answer appears to be, nobody knows. , but, , the best explanation that I read is only a few murders a year can really knock up a country with such a small population murder rate. And because Greenland has such a very,

And what's the word I'm looking for here. Remote geography. It's very easy to get someone alone or do something to somebody without any real risk of consequences.

Simone Collins: is Iceland and Russia seem to be weirdly terminal.

Like there's just this. That's what makes them obviously not about fragility. The other big

Malcolm Collins: area where this trend doesn't hold is Latin America.

Which is low fertility, but also high murder murder.

Simone Collins: Gosh, they're just completely undoing just, just when you think that Russia couldn't be more screwed.

Well,

Malcolm Collins: yeah. Now, if you look at just Europe, which I have here, you can see the big area where this trend doesn't hold. It's to love it. Cultural groups, Slavic cultural groups are [00:04:00] very murdery, but also very low fertility.

Simone Collins: Well, I just, when you think of Slavic culture, though, you kind of think nihilism, depression, and heavy drinking.

Speaker 7: I hear the ballet in Prague is excellent this season. TerriBle, isn't it? Every year it gets worse.

Speaker 8: First they take away our smoking room, then they push us outside.

Speaker 7: I wonder when they will decide just to get it over with and kill us.

Speaker 8: Poor Jörg. Such a pessimist. Jung. What

Speaker 9: are you doing?

You cannot smoke here. They are moving us to a new smoking area. Oh,

Speaker 8: so the rumors were true.

Speaker 7: Oh no! Yen, it's over, Hoang.

Speaker 9: We must all fight them. We must keep smoking until the bitter end.

Speaker 8: I am too tired for revolution.

Malcolm Collins: Actually, yeah, I was going to go into this later, but I can get right [00:05:00] into it before we go into any more data. Okay. So the reason why the, is different things motivate stabbiness in a population? Um, And I would stabbiness is a high level of uh, Individual respect or our personal honor,

Or family honor is the bigger thing.

So, so family honor cultures are very stabby. So are vitalistic cultures. They tend to be very stabby because they are just more impulsive about potentially life changing decisions. Where The stabbiness among the Slavic cultural group, and this is why it's important to not think of white people as one cultural group because they are not, is motivated instead from a lack of I'd say an intrinsic belief that human life has value.

They, as a dominant cultural group, if you look at the art or the stories that they produce and are famous for they are typically based around the types of concepts. [00:06:00] that you are talking about here, Simone, which is to say you know, just I, I mean, I always think of what's that book called the, the cockroach or whatever it's been like the classic Salt Slavic story.

Simone Collins: Oh