Rethinking Social Contracts For A Post Demographic Collapse World

In this episode, Simone and Malcolm discuss a thought-provoking report by McKenzie on the accelerating pace of demographic collapse and its implications on social contracts. They delve deep into how current systems, such as democracy and social security, may become unsustainable in the emerging demographic reality. Utilizing the reforms enacted by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as a case study, they explore potential solutions and transformations needed to adapt to these changes. They discuss concepts like AI-driven solutions, the role of private enterprises, and even the potential centralization of power. They end with playful banter about family life and cooking. Join them for an engaging conversation on the existential challenges ahead and what needs to change for society to thrive.

[00:00:00]

Malcolm Collins: Hello Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today we are going to have a conversation that was instigated by something that McKenzie said.

This is McKenzie, the consulting firm, the mainstream consulting firm. The very normal, normal, normal people consulting firm. Yeah, that we don't say

Simone Collins: anything crazy

Malcolm Collins: consulting firm. We don't say anything crazy. We're just coming to you with reports. Some people might have been going around saying that the sky was falling, and we are now here to confirm that yes, the sky is descending at an accelerating pace and that it might make sense to reposition your assets in non-terrestrial positions.

You know that that's, that's where we are in terms of, they said, quote on the call, right? And I mentioned this before the world as we know it won't work in the new demographic reality. Okay. That's not fun. That's, that is really, that is a consult. Jody's like, okay. Such professional

Simone Collins: wording. For the world's ending as we know it,

Malcolm Collins: these prenatally seem pretty apocalyptic in what they're saying.

It's [00:01:00] like, are they really, like, this is really like a thing, you know? And people expect them to come back and be like, no. Yeah, they're, they're just shock jocks. And they're like, ruffling the pavers. The world will not work in the new demographic reality world as we know. It just won work, which small.

Whoops, all. And then they started talking about, well, we will need to rethink our social contracts. And when Mackenzie says that that's like. Do we, do we really need to go to Revolution right now? And the consultant is like, I would be investing in personal you know, like gun based assets gun based assets not, not stocks.

I mean, you know, for your children and your wife. You may want to have a few of those around the house in case. Oh goodness. But anyway, I, I, I got to thinking about this, like, what, what does this reconstruction of social contracts look like? What do our existing social contracts look like? Why will they not work anymore?

And, and [00:02:00] where do we go as a society? And, and so for the people who've watched the episode where I talk about us like, like the democracy stops working in an era of demographic collapsed. It's, you know, we should go into this a little bit. We're already at, and I didn't know it was this bad. In America, it's 1.8 tax payers for everyone.

Dependent. Right now,

Simone Collins: not good. Not sustainable.

Malcolm Collins: This was in 2023. And if you go to 2017. No, 17 2007. It was two taxpayers for every dependent. So like it's increasing really quickly. And typically systems break down when you get to 1.5 per dependent. And keep in mind, a lot of the world is like way ahead of us on this particular rollercoaster.

Right. You know, we're just like, dude. Tick, tick, but other people, the has already started. So, you know, you, you reach a point where the majority of a population is recipients of the state. And they are living off of the minority of the population who is essentially living as, I [00:03:00] guess sort of like slaves of the states to pay for the majority.

And because the majority won't vote away their own rights or their own money or payment, they just don't turn off these systems. And then currencies collapses and you get revolutions and everything like that. Right? Not, not great, which basically makes democracies non-functional. In the demographic reality in which we were entering.

And so I was thinking, okay, with that being the case, how do we rethink all of this in the most ethical format possible? Okay, so first I wanted look into what, what, what is the social contract that we live under in the United States right now? Mm-hmm. Any thoughts before I go further? Simone?

Simone Collins: I have things to say as part of this conversation.

I, I don't know if there's like, additional framing we need. Okay. So, but I, I guess I should ask, are we talking about social contracts between people and the government or amongst people or both?

Malcolm Collins: Both, like, what do you have to say before I go further? I'm, I'm just gonna read out like what AI thinks the social contract we're currently living under is.

But I wanna hear your thoughts before I go into that.

Simone Collins: Oh, [00:04:00] okay. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think the one thing we can look to, to see how things have already played out is what Shinzo Abe did before he was assassinated, because he was, I think, the first prime minister to really think through how we're going to have to at least begin to shift the social contract, especially between people in the government, in the face of.

Demographic EL lapse because it is obvious that Japan is going to see a declining population. And he had to, well, he didn't have to, but he chose to decide to try to navigate the fact that they would not be able to support social Security the way that a country with a growing population would, which is something we're going to have to encounter too, because I.

What, based on current patterns, social security's gonna go bankrupt by 2036 or 2037. Mm-hmm. So this matters and. What he did is not actually what I expected he would do. I I thought he would [00:05:00] just cut benefits to Indy. That's 'cause you bit metal. Don't chew on that. She's, she's biting the walls of her crib but then getting mad about it.

She's trying to be

Malcolm Collins: true. She's an animal child. Simone. I

Simone Collins: They are. Yeah. You, you can get through it with enough time. Her pickle skewers are pretty sharp. So instead of just reducing the generosity of benefits for older people, he actually shifted to an all generation social security system. So he redefined the focus of social security to serve not only elderly, but also children and families and the working age population, which I think is really interesting.

That it's shifting the social contract away from something that, to your point, basically only benefits the very old and or otherwise very dependent, and instead more supports everyone, which I kind of like. 'cause it motivates the people who are paying for a lot of [00:06:00] this. Mm-hmm. To. Feel not demoralized and your whole point is that democracy and representative democracy becomes undermined when you have one voting class leaching off another Less.

That's

Malcolm Collins: actually really clever. Yeah, that's really clever that he did that. Exactly. So he basic made social security into a UBI.

Simone Collins: Well, no, not, not exactly. No. So he's just trying to rebalance the benefits and burdens of the, of the system to support families with children and working generations because he w