The Biggest Lie Pronatalist Tell (The Hungary Fertility Myth)

In this eye-opening discussion, Malcolm and Simone Collins dive deep into the controversial topic of Hungary's pro-family policies and their supposed success in boosting fertility rates. Despite claims from conservative media outlets and Hungarian officials, a closer look at the data reveals a different story. The hosts examine various sources, including national aggregators, academic studies, and local Hungarian statistics, to uncover the truth behind the numbers. They discuss the dangers of promoting false narratives, the potential for government overreach, and the importance of approaching demographic issues with evidence-based solutions rather than political agendas.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] this Breitbart piece

Simone Collins: the pro family policies pursued by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government as an alternative to mass immigration are reaping dividends. with births of 9.

4 percent year on year. Much ridiculed, , policies were also accompanied by a near 100 percent increase in marriages and the number of children per woman rising to an average of 1.

6. ,

Malcolm Collins: if you look at the data actually Hungary underwent a smaller fertility bump than its neighboring countries.

Simone Collins: Oh no.

Malcolm Collins: So here I am showing a Article from the end of 2023, Daily News Hungry. Number of children born in Hungary at a historic low in 2023. Huh. Okay, that shouldn't be happening. All right let's look at another thing by this outlet.

Brutal population decline. Hungarians are dropping like flies. Oh that was published in [00:01:00] 2023. What? That's not the narrative I was reading So the Hungarian where they measure these informations is called the center of statistics office or the KSH. So I just sent you the KSH graph of the number of births in Hungary.

This bump we're seeing on the national aggregate graphs does not appear in the own country's reporting.

Would you like to know more?

Malcolm Collins: Hello, Simone! I am excited, though trepidatious, to be here with you today, because today, We are going to do what is probably going to be one of our more controversial videos, which is one that I have been actually sitting on for a long time because I haven't wanted to do it because it is a video where we are unfortunately going to have to criticize a common thread within the pronatalist movement and among people who are sympathetic to the movement's cause who are promoting information that Unless you do a very deep dive, you would not be aware is misinformation.

And [00:02:00] so I do not think that it is being promoted with any malevolent intent. It is more just, here is information that confirms my political presuppositions. Therefore, I'm not going to look at it inquisitively or skeptically. And we should add that

Simone Collins: It seems intuitive. So you wouldn't think of the face of it that it's going to be wrong.

Malcolm Collins: And so I would love it if you could start to introduce people to the mainstream pronatalist perspective on this. Read this Breitbart piece I sent you.

Simone Collins: Let me just say it begins with a picture of what I think should be our entire family's new outfit. These traditional Hungarian dresses and women apparently being splashed with water.

I just find it perfect. Anyway,

I shall read. The pro family policies pursued by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government as an alternative to mass immigration are reaping dividends. with births of 9.

4 percent year on year. Edward von Halsberg, the Central European country's ambassador to the Holy [00:03:00] See, and great grandson of Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria Hungary, reported that the, quote, much ridiculed, unquote, policies were also accompanied by a near 100 percent increase in marriages and the number of children per woman rising to an average of 1.

6. , the population has been decreasing since 1981, unquote, said Kathleen Novak, Hungary's State Secretary for Family, Youth and International Affairs, in exclusive comments to Breitbart London, explaining the enormity of the turnaround her government has achieved.

Quote, in 2010, when Orban's Fidesz party won the elections with a two thirds majority after eight years of socialist anti work, anti economy, and anti family governance, our country was at the brink of collapse, she recalled, citing, quote, austerity packages and the dismantling of the family benefit system.

Quote, in 2010, we started to build a family friendly country dot. Our main goal is to eliminate the burdens that couples face when they would like [00:04:00] to have children, she said, highlighting policies including, quote, lifelong exemption from personal income tax for women with four children. Oh, that would be me if we weren't hungry.

Can you imagine? Can I imagine? We set aside 38 percent of our income. Because PA's income tax is also not trivial. Partial mortgage write offs for families after birth of their second child and grandparental leave. Oh, that's smart. See, all these things sound good to me, Malcolm.

Quote, the recent demographic figures speak for themselves. The number of marriages is at a 40 year high. The fertility rate is At its 20 year high, while the divorces haven't been as low as last year, in the last six decades, she added proudly. I love that they have to show her smugness.

Malcolm Collins: I will and you can mention the tweet that they have here, right?

Yes, below there's a

Simone Collins: tweet by Edward Habsburg. Oh, a Habsburg, he says, ready for some good news? The much ridiculed Hungarian family politics is showing results in January 2020, 9. 4 [00:05:00] percent more births than last year, almost 100 percent more marriages and children per women from 1. 4 to 1. 6.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, so You see all this and first I'd point out that you've got to understand like why Breitbart wants this to be true, right?

If you look at just the very next paragraph, the Secretary of State, herself a mother of three, was forced right when pressed to comment on the past remarks of outlets. Such as the Left Liberal Economist magazine, which rubbished the Hungarian government's aspirations to arrest its demographic decline through so called natalist policies rather than mass migration, as Western European countries such as Britain, Germany, and Sweden have attempted.

Simone Collins: So By the way, it's is that how British people say trashed? I love that.

Malcolm Collins: The point being is that if I am coming into this like a bright writer or something like that, right? Yeah. What I am contrasting here is mass migration as a solution to fertility [00:06:00] collapse versus what they are calling.

Yeah, pro family policies, which I think in a historic since most conservatives who weren't so blinded by sectarianism within our own country would call socialism and government handouts. And it's not to say that I'm against it for that reason. I'm just saying this is not a conservative solution.

It is a slightly more conservative solution than mass migration, but it is not. And we need to talk about this. scale of these handouts. 5 percent of Hungary's GDP is going to these programs. Okay. So the other thing I want to note here,

Simone Collins: wait, hold on. What percent of GDP does the U S spend on various things?

Malcolm Collins: So if you want to get that in context for within the US, if you're looking at the total amount of spending that goes to R and D, that 3. 4%.

Simone Collins: Okay.

Wow.