This One Graph Changed Everything I Thought I Knew About The Birth Rate Collapse

The Discord URL: https://discord.gg/27eJzt2n

In this eye-opening episode, Malcolm and Simone dive deep into the startling data behind America's plummeting fertility rates. Analyzing a graph synthesized from multiple studies, they uncover a little-known fact: the lion's share of the fertility decline is occurring among women under the age of 24. The couple explores the implications of this finding, discussing how the normalization of contraception, declining teen pregnancies, and a lack of understanding about peak fertility windows have contributed to the current crisis. They also touch on the cultural shift towards delayed marriage and childbearing, and how this has led many women to miss their biological window for conception. Malcolm and Simone then turn their attention to a thought-provoking article by Reagan Artin's Gray, which proposes a controversial solution: paying people $511,000 for each child after their second. While acknowledging the potential effectiveness of such a policy, they argue that it is politically unfeasible and could incentivize the wrong demographics to have children. The conversation then shifts to the importance of targeting productive, taxpaying individuals in any pronatalist policy. Malcolm and Simone discuss the pitfalls of simply increasing population without considering the economic and social impact of those additional citizens. They also touch on the role of immigration in bolstering a nation's productive workforce. Finally, the couple proposes an alternative solution: offering tax breaks and special societal status to families with three or more children. Drawing parallels to the treatment of veterans, they argue that individuals who make significant sacrifices for the state, such as raising large families, should be recognized and rewarded accordingly. Throughout the episode, Malcolm and Simone challenge conventional wisdom about fertility decline, explore the complex interplay of cultural, economic, and biological factors, and offer a nuanced perspective on one of the most pressing issues facing developed nations today. Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the surprising data on America's fertility collapse 02:14 - Breaking down the fertility graph by age group

Malcolm Collins: , [00:00:00] Simone, today we are going to have an episode that I think our audience is going to really like, because I saw a graph today that did more to explain falling fertility rates in the United States than any other graph I've seen.

Like, I think this is actually. The key graph and understanding functionally what's going on with demographic collapse, and it touches on a trend we had seen when we were talking about Latin American statistics, but I had never seen it so clearly argued was an American statistics.

Would you like to know more?

Malcolm Collins: Now, this graph was actually put together by a sub stack writer named.

Reagan Artin's gray you can find it at Reagan's sub stack is, is the name of the sub stack. And it's an article she put together. Can we afford to buy marginal babies? And I want to go over the arguments. Made in this piece because they're actually pretty interesting arguments and definitely worth engaging with.

But I, I [00:01:00] think that she comes up with a rational argument in the piece. Like it's a good argument, right? Or the best I've heard in terms of a policy solution. I just don't think it could ever get past with existing political climates. But what was really interesting and I don't need, because she didn't seem to realize in the piece that no one had put together this information before.

At least two that we've seen. Yeah, she put together like five different information sources. So this came from NHS birth rates. This came for Osterman, Michael J. K. at all births, final data from 2021, Hamilton beat. Well, anyway, just like a bunch of different studies. And then through synthesizing all of these studies, you get this graph, which we are putting on the screen here and which Simone, you are looking at right now, I assume.

Yes, sir. Okay. So what was your read of what's happening in the graph? Cause I remember it was wrong and I want to see how you got this wrong read. Cause

Simone Collins: it was wrong. What I saw from this was that [00:02:00] we are seeing the same thing that we have always been seeing, which is that women in their twenties have been delaying fertility more and more and more.

Oh no, I see. Yeah, I see where I was misreading it because I thought in the past women in their thirties were making up for it.

Malcolm Collins: No, no. And they aren't. What's fascinating about this graph is it divides fertility of women in the United States into four groups. Age brackets. Age brackets. Age brackets.

Yes. 20 to 24, 25 to 29, 30 to 34, and 35 to 39. What is fascinating is that only one of these groups is declining in fertility. If you were looking only at the 30 to 35 women. Their fertility has actually gone up a bit over time.

Simone Collins: Same with 35 to 39. Same with 35 to 39. Anyone over 30 is having more, a higher fertility rate on average now.

25

Malcolm Collins: to 29 has [00:03:00] gone down marginally, but only marginally. It could be a statistical error. All of the fertility collapse in our country is coming from women under 24 years of age. The

Simone Collins: lion's share, at least. The 20 to 20, 25 to 29 range went down from, you know, Around 2.1 to two, which is non-trivial, like just under two.

Okay. But what we see from 20 to 24, is it going from just under 2.1 to 1.8? A pretty big drop?

Malcolm Collins: I'd argue it is trivial. It isn't non-trivial. It, it is trivial in the world of fertility collapse. A 0.1 decline in a period of like 10 years is basically irrelevant. The vast majority of the decline is, is, is coming from this incredibly young group.

Yeah.

Simone Collins: They went from just below 2. 1 to 1. 8. There's certainly, yeah, the youngest, the youngest 20 somethings that used to be having kids are taking the lion's share of this.

Malcolm Collins: Well, [00:04:00] this is fascinating. And there's another thing you may not have noticed here. If you add up these groups, they then don't match to the overall fertility decline.

There is additional fertility decline that is not being captured in these statistics.

Do you see that? Okay. Do you see the dotted line? Yeah. Okay. That's the total TFR, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yes. The total TFR Shouldn't be able to go below the lowest of the indicator groups. Yeah, I don't get that Okay, so there's two things that could be causing that. It could be women under 20 have maybe just completely disappeared as a fertility group, which we actually know is true.

Teenage pregnancies are way down. Yeah. So teenage pregnancies, it could also be as we know, people like to fiddle with fertility data to make it not look as extreme as it [00:05:00] is. Right. But all of the trends here are basically the same. So I don't think we need to read too much into this. The core answer here is that the thing that is causing fertility collapse in our country.

is women under the age of 24 not having kids. Yeah. Which

Simone Collins: is like what everyone's been saying is happening in Latin America.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. In Latin America, we knew that this is where fertility collapse was coming from. And you can see the, our Latin Americans going extinct video that we put out because their fertility collapse is way faster than the United States fertility collapse.

And they'll likely be below us, Latin America in