Why Did Only Some Countries Have A Baby Boom?

In this episode, we delve into the phenomenon of the post-World War II baby boom, examining the various factors that contributed to it. The discussion includes an analysis of child mortality rates, economic conditions, and differences among countries. By comparing nations with significant booms to those without, the hosts argue that national identity, propaganda, and a sense of existential threat greatly influenced fertility rates. They also explore how future-oriented nationalism, rather than nostalgia, can drive modern fertility strategies.

[00:00:00]

Malcolm Collins: Hello Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today we are going to be talking about the post World War II Baby boom. We have done an episode of this in the past, and the thesis that we came to in that episode was that the post World War II baby boom was predominantly about.

It, it, it decreased child mortality. And this is true, a lot of it can be just pinned on the head of, if you think about that period. If you go to the beginning of it, it was something like half of babies died. Then at the end of it, it was something like like 2% of babies died. That's

Simone Collins: pretty big,

Malcolm Collins: a very big jump.

It was like, you know, you're doubling the number of babies out of nowhere. But that can't really explain everything because. It didn't happen the same amount in every country. And if it had just been medical technology, then it would've been based on how developed a particular country was at the time, and that's what would've led to the baby boom.

Simone Collins: Mm-hmm.

Malcolm Collins: And you get a little bit of that, but not a lot of [00:01:00] that.

And the baby boom is incredibly important to study because if you look at this graph here, when we're talking about fertility collapse, it really started in the US around 1835, and the only persistent reversal you get of it from that time period is the baby boom. And it is a significant reversal of it.

Malcolm Collins: It, it appears to, when we go through and we're gonna go through now the country that happened in the country, that didn't happen in,

Simone Collins (2): Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: When you go through that list, you can begin to try to build a thesis on what caused this, right?

So, in Italy you had no boom or a very small boom, okay? Okay. In Greece you had no boom. In Portugal you had no boom in Spain, you had no boom. All right. In Poland, you had no boom in Bulgaria. You had no boom throughout most of the Soviet Union. You had no boom [00:02:00] Estonia, no boom Lithuania, no boom.

Brazil and Latin America. No. Boom. Argentina, no. Boom. Uruguay, no. Boom. India, no. Boom.

Simone Collins: So is this a lack of economic thriving in these countries? That's my first intuition. Most people commenting are gonna be like, well that's 'cause they were struggling economically.

Malcolm Collins: So what's the Yeah. But all of Europe was struggling economically post World War ii.

A lot of places were struggling economically post World War ii without having the boom. Okay, so now let's go. Okay, where, where, where do we get a boom? All right?

Simone Collins (2): Mm-hmm. You get a boom

Malcolm Collins: in the United States, all right? You get a boom in Canada, you get a boom in the United Kingdom, okay?

You get a boom in France. You get a, a very large boom in Australia.

Simone Collins (2): Mm-hmm. You actually get

Malcolm Collins: an even larger boom. The largest of the baby booms happened in New Zealand. You get a very big boom in Norway. You get a moderate boom in Sweden, but it began [00:03:00] before the war started.

Simone Collins (2): Mm-hmm.

Malcolm Collins: In Denmark you have a, a weak boom in Finland.

You had a significant boom in Iceland. You had a very significant boom in the Netherlands. You had a weak boom. In Belgium, you had a weak boom. In Switzerland, you had a weak boom. In Austria, you had the strongest in Europe. Whoa, Austria. Okay. In West Germany you had a boom, but in East Germany you didn't have a boom.

And in Ireland you didn't have a boom. You also didn't have booms in oh, interesting. You had a, a, a very short one in Japan, but then it disappeared. So, you had a, a non-Western boom in Morocco to again, keep in mind like economic developments and stuff like this. And you had a boom in Mongolia, you had a boom in Turkey.

Not a big one. [00:04:00] These, these non-Western ones, but you had them?

Simone Collins: Mm-hmm. Okay.

Malcolm Collins: Alright. So trying to build a pattern here. Initial part of the pattern, really easy to see. Anyone who's under Soviet communist rule did not have a boom. However oh, I didn't mention this one.

You did get a big boom in China, but Chinese Communist rule, you get a big boom. Okay? Mm-hmm. So first note here, second. If you were part of the Allies you get a very big boo. Okay. So it helps

Simone Collins: if you're a, a winner.

Malcolm Collins: Right. Well, I mean, some people like technically won by not having the war ravaged their countries, but were not part of the allies.

So a good example of this would be Ireland. Ireland didn't have a boom and refused to join the allies.

Speaker 2: Irish b*****d. What? What? What's that? McCarran, that's an Irish name.

Save the blarney for the Killen's patty. What? Archer, what are you? He's the target. What I just remembered from the Doss.

You know what, Patty?

Hang

Speaker 4: on. Let's shut [00:05:00] up.

Speaker 5: God.

Speaker 4: So where did you get access power?

Speaker 5: Ireland

Speaker 4: and Ireland was not an Axis power.

Speaker 5: Are you sure

Speaker 4: they were neutral? Oh,

Speaker 2: oh, that's right.

Malcolm Collins: Oh,

Simone Collins: yeah. Whereas France got pled. It was not pretty,

Malcolm Collins: but. Right. And it's not just the countries that were personally like, like, hit by the effects of the war because the North America and Canada and New Zealand and Australia where you saw booms many times bigger than the European booms they were not actually, like, they didn't.

See all the devastation. So we've talked about if you have a tsunami in an area, you'll have a higher fertility rate after the tsunami than in surrounding areas. Mm-hmm. So like mass to death can cause fertility growth. Maybe it triggered something in these men's heads that they were at war and they saw all this.

Simone Collins (2): Hmm.

Malcolm Collins: Maybe, maybe. So we'll get to that. But then you've got other countries that maybe make less sits. Okay.

Simone Collins (2): Mm-hmm.

Malcolm Collins: I also think that things like if I remember [00:06:00] like Morocco, can you check this on AI was weekly, allied was the allies in World War ii. So that could explain their boom. But not all allies have a boom.

India doesn't have a boom. Okay. So, so we've had a look. Okay. What, what does India have in common with the Soviet Union? And yeah, so

Simone Collins: Morocco was under French colonial rule and part of the French protector itself.

Malcolm Collins: Ye