Enhancing Financial Time-Series Forecasting with Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models

🤗 Upvotes: 25 | cs.CL

Authors:
Mengxi Xiao, Zihao Jiang, Lingfei Qian, Zhengyu Chen, Yueru He, Yijing Xu, Yuecheng Jiang, Dong Li, Ruey-Ling Weng, Min Peng, Jimin Huang, Sophia Ananiadou, Qianqian Xie

Title:
Enhancing Financial Time-Series Forecasting with Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models

Arxiv:
http://arxiv.org/abs/2502.05878v2

Abstract:
Stock movement prediction, a critical task in financial time-series forecasting, relies on identifying and retrieving key influencing factors from vast and complex datasets. However, traditional text-trained or numeric similarity-based retrieval methods often struggle to handle the intricacies of financial data. To address this, we propose the first retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework specifically designed for financial time-series forecasting. Our framework incorporates three key innovations: a fine-tuned 1B large language model (StockLLM) as its backbone, a novel candidate selection method enhanced by LLM feedback, and a training objective that maximizes the similarity between queries and historically significant sequences. These advancements enable our retriever, FinSeer, to uncover meaningful patterns while effectively minimizing noise in complex financial datasets. To support robust evaluation, we also construct new datasets that integrate financial indicators and historical stock prices. Experimental results demonstrate that our RAG framework outperforms both the baseline StockLLM and random retrieval methods, showcasing its effectiveness. FinSeer, as the retriever, achieves an 8% higher accuracy on the BIGDATA22 benchmark and retrieves more impactful sequences compared to existing retrieval methods. This work highlights the importance of tailored retrieval models in financial forecasting and provides a novel, scalable framework for future research in the field.