How to Read a Changing Property Market

The property market may be turning, but the headline numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Gerard Burg joins Veronica and Chris to unpack what’s really happening beneath the national figures, from Brisbane’s rapid shift from growth to decline to the growing gap between premium and more affordable markets.

They explore what rising listings actually reveal about buyer and seller behaviour, why affordability has become such a powerful constraint, and whether recent policy changes are driving the downturn or simply arriving after the warning signs were already there. Gerard also explains what Cotality’s suburb-level data reveals about how different parts of the market are responding.

The conversation then moves beyond property prices to the bigger economic picture: stubborn inflation, a tight but unusually sticky labour market, construction constraints and Australia’s worsening rental shortage. With rental listings still well below their 2020 peak, the discussion raises a bigger question about what happens to long-term rental supply if investor participation continues to weaken.

And finally, Gerard shares the property purchase that reminded him that even economists aren’t immune to emotion when buying a home.

Episode Highlights

00:00 – Why Property Markets Are Moving in Different Directions

09:35 – Listings Rise as Buyers Pull Back

12:14 – Are Rates or the Budget Driving the Downturn?

15:35 – Investors and First Home Buyers Are Pulling Back

19:04 – Why Inflation and Jobs Aren’t Behaving Normally

25:13 – Energy Costs, Inflation and the Housing Squeeze

30:12 – Affordability Is Reshaping the Property Market

35:22 – What the Data Says About Market Fear

38:06 – What Past Property Downturns Can Tell Us

41:08 – The Signals That Could Mark a Market Turn

45:43 – Even Economists Make Emotional Property Decisions

49:01 – Wrap-Up and Listener Questions

About the Guest

Gerard Burg is a national research leader at Cotality, bringing more than two decades of experience as a macroeconomist at NAB to the analysis of Australia’s property market.

His background gives him a perspective that connects property with the broader economy, including interest rates, affordability, labour markets, inflation, migration and consumer behaviour. At Cotality, Gerard has access to detailed property data that allows the team to examine market movements well beyond national and capital-city averages, including trends at suburb and price-segment level.

In this episode, Gerard draws on that data to explain how the current downturn is unfolding, why different parts of the market are behaving very differently, what rising listings and weak buyer activity reveal about market sentiment, and how affordability and investor behaviour could shape both property prices and rental supply.

Connect with Gerard

• LinkedIn | Gerard Burg
• LinkedIn | Cotality Australia

Resources

• Visit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
• If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:
• The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - [email protected]
• Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
• Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
• Looking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.au
• Work with Chris: [email protected]

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See you on the inside,

Veronica & Chris