Melbourne Property in 2026: Opportunity or Overhyped?

From The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate Chris Bates

Melbourne is back in the spotlight, with many buyers and investors asking whether the city now offers one of the best opportunities in the country.

But broad market narratives can be misleading—especially in a city where different segments are moving for very different reasons.

In this episode, Jarrod McCabe joins us to unpack what’s really happening across Melbourne in 2026. From first home buyers re-entering the market to local investors stepping back and interstate buyers stepping in, the city is being shaped by multiple forces moving in different directions.

We explore why Melbourne is no longer a market that can be understood through broad averages alone. Jarrod explains the growing importance of asset selection, why some properties may outperform while others stagnate, and how taxes, policy changes, apartment oversupply, and shifting buyer behaviour are reshaping the investment landscape.

If you’re considering Melbourne property, this episode offers a grounded look at where the risks are, where the opportunities may lie, and why buying based on simple narratives could be an expensive mistake.

Episode Highlights

02:43 — Costly Melbourne Mistakes Interstate Buyers are Making

05:36 — Why Melbourne Moves in Different Price Quartiles

08:52 — Outer Suburbs Face Major Supply Risks

10:20 — Developer Hotspots, Strata and Hidden Risks

13:16 — What Properties Still Outperform in Melbourne

17:37 — Is There Real Pent-Up Demand in Melbourne?

19:45 — Confidence, Rate Cuts and Buyer Hesitation

22:06 — Taxes, Investor Sentiment and Market Exits

25:25 — Rental Rules and Unintended Consequences

28:47 — Are First Home Buyers Getting Stitched Up?

33:45 — Infrastructure Booms and Buyer Beware Zones

35:48 — Melbourne Livability vs Victoria’s Debt Problem

37:43 — Geelong Hype vs Property Price Reality

40:42 — Regional Markets and Investor Herding Risks

47:30 — Timing the Bottom: Psychology vs Reality

50:51 — Upgrade Opportunities vs Job Uncertainty

53:48 — Final Thoughts and Listener Questions

About the Guest

Jarrod McCabe is Director of Wakelin Property Advisory, one of Melbourne’s most respected independent buyer advocacy firms.

With more than two decades of experience in Melbourne’s inner and middle-ring markets, Jarrod has helped clients navigate multiple market cycles through a disciplined, research-driven approach focused on long-term asset selection.

Known for combining valuation expertise with on-the-ground buyer insights, Jarrod brings a practical view of Melbourne property—cutting through hype to focus on what actually drives performance.

Connect with Jarrod

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