Free Trade Is Still Here - For Now

Today we’re talking about the July 1 review of the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, better known as USMCA, and what it means for anyone developing or constructing buildings in North America.

Leading up to July 1, the public conversation made the date sound like a cliff. Either the agreement would be renewed for another sixteen years, or it would somehow vanish overnight. That was never the actual mechanism. USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020. The agreement has a sixteen-year term, which takes it to 2036. The six-year review was a decision point, not an expiration date. Because the three countries did not unanimously extend it, the agreement remains in force and now moves into annual reviews.

The important point is that continuity and certainty are not the same thing. The legal framework survives. Goods that satisfy the agreement’s rules of origin can continue to receive preferential treatment. But businesses no longer have a fresh sixteen-year runway. They now face a recurring political checkpoint, with the possibility of changes being negotiated every year.

For the construction industry, that distinction matters. Construction is a long-cycle business. A development conceived today may not buy structural steel, electrical gear, windows, elevators, HVAC equipment, or finish materials for two or three years. A manufacturer deciding where to build a plant may be making a twenty-year decision. Annual trade reviews introduce a mismatch between short political cycles and long capital commitments.

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