Episode 113: Pascal, Probability, and Pitchforks

David and Tamler break down what may be the best argument that it's rational to believe in God: Pascal's Wager. (No, we're not just trolling our Sam Harris listeners.) Does the expected value of believing in God outweigh the probability that you're wrong? How does belief work--can you just turn it on and off? What if you believe in the wrong God? This leads to a wide-ranging discussion on decision theory, instrumental rationality, artificial intelligence, transformative experiences, and whether David should drop acid. Your brain AND your future self will love this episode!

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Links:

• 2017 BP MS 150: Mr. Tamler Sommers - National MS Society
• Prose&Cons - YouTube
• Why people are so bad at thinking about the future.
• On Intertemporal Selfishness: How the Perceived Instability of Identity Underlies Impatient Consumption | Journal of Consumer Research | Oxford Academic
• "Homer's Soul" by Paul Bloom and David Pizarro
• Pascal's Wager - Wikipedia
• Pascal's mugging - Wikipedia
• Transformative Experience by L.A. Paul, in conversation with Paul Bloom.
• "Transformative Experience: by L. A. Paul [amazon.com affiliate link]