Fed Rates Rise, Old Rejections Get a Second Look: Olive's Post-Hike Playbook

Recording date: 16th September 2026

Olive Resource Capital's Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson used this Compass episode, recorded the day after the Federal Reserve's September rate decision, to address two distinct but connected investor questions: what the Fed's move means for the resource complex, and what the fund is watching for as it heads into the year's two most important precious metals conferences.

The headline takeaway is that neither guest sees the unanimous 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4.00% as a meaningful threat to their long-term commodity thesis. The muted reaction in gold and the US Dollar Index, alongside a US two-year Treasury yield already signalling further hikes, supports their view that the move was fully priced in rather than a genuine surprise to markets, even if it surprised the guests personally. More importantly for positioning, Pelaez's framing of gold's correlation with real rather than nominal interest rates offers a specific, testable lens for investors trying to judge how much further tightening the metal can absorb before its monetary debasement thesis is genuinely challenged. Investors should note the tail risk both guests raised without dwelling on: a hiking cycle aggressive enough to tip the US into recession remains a historical possibility that could force a more disruptive repricing than a single 25 basis point move.

On timing, the pair's read that the Fed is unlikely to hike again at its 27-28 October meeting, a week ahead of the US midterm elections, is a near-term calendar marker worth tracking against actual Fed communication over the coming weeks, rather than treating it as settled.

The conference-season discussion carries the more actionable content for stock-pickers. The core shift the pair identify from a market where companies needed to prove they could raise capital to one where most already have it and now need to prove they can deploy it, this reframes what investors should listen for in company presentations this autumn: tangible project milestones and catalysts, not just balance sheet strength. Olive's specific focus on finding a copper name to replace Arizona Sonoran Copper following its acquisition signals where the fund sees the next wave of M&A activity concentrating, and its continued but qualified conviction in Gladiator Metals offers a concrete example of a name investors may want to benchmark against whatever emerges from Beaver Creek and Colorado Springs.

The Bravo Mining anecdote is worth flagging as a broader behavioural point rather than a stock-specific one: both guests explicitly warn against anchoring too heavily on a name's history, whether that's a story once dismissed as overvalued or one an investor has simply stopped tracking. For a fund with Olive's track record of identifying re-rating candidates before broader market recognition, that openness to revisiting prior "no"s is itself a signal of where they expect this cycle's opportunities to