JPMorgan Just Set Up Bitcoin's Real Bull Run

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JPMorgan just put a number on Bitcoin for the first time: 10% a year for the next decade, the highest of any asset in its long-term outlook. Jackson, Michael and Brian explain why that number is too low and why Bitcoin's real bull run hasn't started yet, then cover Schwab's Bitcoin rollout and CoreWeave's bond slide.

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ABOUT THIS EPISODE

JPMorgan's 31st Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions gives Bitcoin about 10% a year over the next decade, ahead of US large caps at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. Brian shows why that is conservative: Bitcoin has beaten 10% in every 10-year window of its history, and he argues its volatility skews up, not down. Schwab has finished rolling out Bitcoin trading to its clients, Germany's Sparkassen are opening Bitcoin to savers, and Switzerland approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF for retail. The hosts cover a USAA outage, the OCC's final GENIUS Act rule, France's 31% tax on crypto-to-stablecoin swaps and an IMF paper on financial repression. They close on CoreWeave bonds below 80 cents, $3.1 trillion of off-balance-sheet AI debt, and why paper gains need a harder money.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Welcome and a new bull market

04:32 - JPMorgan's first Bitcoin forecast: 10% a year

06:16 - Every 10-year window beat 10%

10:15 - Why Wall Street changed its tune on Bitcoin

15:09 - Bitcoin's volatility is a feature, not a bug

18:07 - Schwab completes its Bitcoin rollout

21:17 - Every big firm wants a seat at the table

25:04 - Sparkassen and Switzerland's first retail Bitcoin ETF

26:31 - Single point of failure of the week: USAA goes dark

29:38 - Ledger fallout, the GENIUS Act rule and France's 31% swap tax

34:24 - Stablecoins near $1 trillion a quarter

38:00 - The IMF on financial repression and Trump accounts

42:11 - Importing Bitcoin, exporting dollars

51:50 - CoreWeave bonds and $3.1T of hidden AI debt

1:01:17 - What is breaking beneath the surface

1:10:33 - Why Bitcoin's real bull run hasn't started

ABOUT THE SHOW

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term.

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Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.