Why Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Ending

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian make the case that Bitcoin is carving out a structural bottom as old-coin distribution collapses and the worst of ETF and treasury-company selling exhausts itself. They break down Japan reclassifying crypto as a financial product and slashing its effective tax rate from 55% toward 20%. They dig into why the Clarity Act, not the administration, is the real green light for Wall Street. They close on Morgan Stanley's $4 to $8 trillion AI capex wave and the launch of Onramp's Back to the Basics campaign.

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

The crew opens on Alex Thorn's chart showing 2026 on pace for less than half the awakened old coins of 2024 and 2025, and Will Clemente's read that ETF and treasury-company selling has largely exhausted itself while long-term holders sit on record supply. Brian sees Bitcoin grinding into the $90Ks by year end, with 2027 as the year the market realizes it isn't dead. They break down Japan reclassifying crypto as a financial product and cutting its effective tax rate from 55% toward 20%, then argue the Clarity Act's real power is air cover: defined CFTC and SEC roles that let JP Morgan, BlackRock, and DTCC lay tokenization plumbing without fear of a Warren-style ambush. The back half runs through Interactive Brokers listing nine tokens, Bessent's Iran wallet seizures and Fort Knox gold claim, and Morgan Stanley's forecast of $4 to $8 trillion in AI capex by 2028. They close on Onramp's Back to the Basics launch: Brian's fundamentals report, zero-fee DCA, 50% off Bitcoin trades through Labor Day, and 100 free Bitcoin IRAs under code basics.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Podcast Announcements

03:31 - Bitcoin Sentiment and On-Chain Distribution in 2024

08:17 - On-Chain Valuation Metrics and Market Sentiment

12:42 - Japan's Crypto Legislation and Tax Reforms

14:34 - US Legislation and Global Regulatory Race

20:35 - Implications of Japan's Crypto Policy for US Markets

25:46 - Market Outlook and Institutional Flows

33:42 - Tokenomics and Altcoin Dynamics

37:22 - Iran Crypto Asset Seizures and Geopolitical Risks

43:56 - Data Center Buildouts and AI Infrastructure

49:10 - Back to the Basics: Bitcoin Fundamentals and Education

58:27 - Conclusion and Final Remarks

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